Saturday, January 23, 2010

Meltdown




Obama is now in full meltdown. The latest Rasmussen Dail Presidential tracking poll results is based on a sample collected over the 3 days since the Massachusetts Senate Race election.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19.
While he has touched this level once before and then pulled back the cycle of failure is followed. Some mishandled event is followed by a poll decline followed by a media induced rally that only partially works followed by further damage. This pattern has been repeated for a year. Each time he tries to react by attacking some element of business or society or an ally and being more partisan. Each time he does so the alienation of all but his most committed base becomes deeper. Three times in a row he has intervened in local elections, Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Each time the results have been disastrous. The only election where his endorsed candidate has won was in the NY 23rd, and that was so tainted by the manipulations of the faux Republican who dropped out and the mass of outside SEIU foot soldiers brought in that it resurrected the dormant Republican Party in NY.

Each of the tools that he has relied upon is being progressively stripped away from him. The cushion of a super-majority and the aura of inevitability have been destroyed by the electorate. The financial support of wealthy financiers, except for the ever loyal Goldman Sachs and Soros, have been lost through his betrayals and economic destruction. The monopoly over getting his message out through favored media has been crippled by the Supreme Court and the ability of his ridiculed old opposition to use new technologies to organize a spontaneous opposition.
The number of Democrats who Strongly Approve has fallen from 55% on Tuesday morning to 48% today. The number of unaffiliated voters who Strongly Disapprove has increased from 43% on Tuesday to 51% today. It remains to be seen whether those changes are a temporary reaction in the wake of a stunning election upset or the beginning of a more lasting change.
He now can count on the loyalty in a crisis of less than half the Democrats and the Independents oppose him. As the Massachusetts race proved most of the Democratic establishments support is skin deep and based on inertia. People have absorbed the MSM message that the Republicans were isolated old losers and a Democratic victory was inevitable. Once that balloon is punctured it deflates.

My prediction now is that in a month Obama's baseline of support will be in the 20-25% range and his strong opposition will be in the 45-50% range. His spread will be fixed at or above -20% and will touch -25%. All of this will be followed by economic shocks this Summer as the commercial real estate bubble collapses, the Chinese economy stalls, the American financial sector hemorrhages jobs and capital, and the Iranians and Putin seek to drive up the price of energy.

War in the Middle-east could bring a brief rally in Obama's direction but he has lost the trust of all parties. Desperate Democrats looking at electoral elimination may start seeking to ease him off stage. That could provoke race riots during a long hot Summer as blacks beome desperate over the economic pressures and their sense of the betrayal of their President.

2 comments:

Teresita said...

What a coincidence, I just cooked up a fake chart of Obama's slide just to learn how to use a chart program in an old DOS-based GUI called GEM.

All of this will be followed by economic shocks this Summer as the commercial real estate bubble collapses, the Chinese economy stalls, the American financial sector hemorrhages jobs and capital, and the Iranians and Putin seek to drive up the price of energy.

The commercial real estate bubble has already collapsed in America, we're waiting for it to collapse in China, where it's currently being used as a store of value, like gold. China with its export-based system was banking on a "V" shaped global economic recovery, and they aren't getting it. The economic shock here will come in the next few months as unemployment begins to creep up again, this time into the 11s and 12s. Gas at $3.50 by summer, $4.00 by election time. The theme for November will be "Had enough? Now let the adults take the wheel."

Teresita said...

What a coincidence, I just cooked up a fake chart of Obama's slide just to learn how to use a chart program in an old DOS-based GUI called GEM.

All of this will be followed by economic shocks this Summer as the commercial real estate bubble collapses, the Chinese economy stalls, the American financial sector hemorrhages jobs and capital, and the Iranians and Putin seek to drive up the price of energy.

The commercial real estate bubble has already collapsed in America, we're waiting for it to collapse in China, where it's currently being used as a store of value, like gold. China with its export-based system was banking on a "V" shaped global economic recovery, and they aren't getting it. The economic shock here will come in the next few months as unemployment begins to creep up again, this time into the 11s and 12s. Gas at $3.50 by summer, $4.00 by election time. The theme for November will be "Had enough? Now let the adults take the wheel."