Monday, December 28, 2009

Comments on the Belmont Club
"Iran again"

Let’s hope Hillary and President Obama don’t get on the platform just as the train leaves the station.

Hillary and Barack (there is a phrase that does not flow off the tongue) are to busy trying to get each other, and the American people, to sit on the tracks in front of any approaching train to even notice if one has left the station. That should beat a metaphor to death at least.

Most punditry on Iran has never gotten past the sophomore level theory that Shia hates Sunni so we can exploit divisions and make friends. We are still crippled by the parade of has beens and never weres who bring a level of fecklessness to the foreign policy process in this administration unequaled except for the domestic policy process in this administration.

This month's edition of Foreign Policy from the CFR is interesting. Central is Zbig Brezhinsky but off to the side is Abraham Sofaer. This could be an indulgence that indicates the self confidence of the establishment under the new regime or it could be an anchor to windward as the Carter II administration runs into a familiar hole.

The Iranian regime has imported Hezbollah thugs to beat up the people. If the Mullahs fall it will pull the rug out from under Syria, the Lebanese threat to Israel and hurt al-Qeada, who are linked to Tehran. The Norks would feel the blow too. "Axis of Evil" indeed.

Of course when they are falling is when they are the most dangerous.

The Iranians are security clients of the Chinese. My expectation is that they are taking advice from the acknowledged experts on surviving a popular counter-revolution. The next step should be to shift military units and commanders around to ensure two things;
1. Any plots among commanders will be disrupted and social links between them and local groups broken
2. When the Tien an Men time comes that the troops in Tehran are not friendly locals but hostile country boys.

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