Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Long Range Planning
(fm the BC thread "Someday I'll Meet You Again")
The general consensus of the discussion here seems to be that three things are likely to happen, although the order may vary.
1. The enrollment of 15-20 million new citizens through an Amnesty process, with a similar number to follow under relaxed immigration rules including "family reunification."
2. A severe reaction by the voters, the belief in which is justified both by recent special and gubernatorial elections as well as historical off year patterns, at the midterm elections that cost the Democrats at least control of the House and conceivably the Senate.
3. A series of disasters and humiliations that will befall America including economic trauma and foreign aggression.
The question seems to be as to whether the effects of the first and third events will be used to ensure a series of measures that place political control beyond the reach of the current moderate conservative majority. That theory has been advanced by Subotai Bahadur and Habu on the preceding thread.
An alternative theory occurs to me. Perhaps the Republicans do take control of Congress and then take control of the White House in 2012 but the real bad news does not happen for another 24 months. The effects of an Amnesty and the political turmoil caused by widespread bankruptcies on the part of States during the near term could frustrate efforts to repeal the Democrats social welfare program. It will be argued that wasteful and unproductive as the millions of SEIU members employed under this plan are they still have jobs and it is hard to fire anyone during Hard Times.
Under this perspective it is better for the Democrats to lose massively in Congress now and then either have smaller losses or even hold their position in Congress while giving up the White House in 2012. So come 2012 the Republicans would own the entire government, with the entrenched and hostile alliance of New Americans and the Democratic Base in opposition, when the roof really falls in.
Many have speculated that the events of September 2008 were an arranged Black Swan. If that was to happen again then the Republican Party as a national institution would be destroyed. The whole scenario depends on whether the really bad news hits before or after the election in 2012. It is possible that to long range thinkers, Soros and the Chinese possibly, Democratic Party losses in the midterms are not a bug but a feature.