Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Fail Unsafe


(fm the BC thread "Days of Rage")

Subotai Bahadur,
(Who presented a lengthy and chilling consideration of possible US preparations for an attack on Israel.)

Thank you for what may be the most important comment that I have seen on the web ever. My hope is that your analysis will be widely distributed and discussed. My intent is to assist in that effort as much as my modest efforts can.

Staging B-1s at Fantasy Island to overfly the Magic Kingdom and strike the Israelis is both workable and evil. Under Bush the Israelis consented to the US opening an Early Warning radar installation as a confidence building measure that showed our commitment to their security. The Americans have refused to give Israel access to the radar system that we operate on their territory. It may prove to be a Trojan Horse.

The only defense that the Israelis can have against such threats would be to take a page from the Chechens and preposition their responses in target cities. They could not do that in smaller or more controlled Arab cities, or at least it would not be worth the effort. They probably could smuggle nuclear devices into places like Moscow, DC, Chicago, Berlin, London and Paris, and bury them where it would be a billion to one chance of their being found. One day the Israeli Ambassador may invite the President or some similar person to tear his capital apart looking for the Doomsday device. To gain credibility they may share photos of him in the bathroom. They probably could pull it off.

If they do not have such a response ready though their options are not encouraging. They may need to preempt an American move. The eradication of the Syrian regime by Israel may now be more likely.

-------
Bob,
(who linked to a Commentary refutation)
We already knew that the Scottish Herald newspaper was a disreputable source. No one here was accepting their information as proof of an imminent American attack on Iran but rather as reason to consider what the US could do from that position. The Commentary piece does not refute the basic claims about infrastructure upgrades and weapons prepositioning. If any of that is true, and it should be possible to either source or refute some of it without getting security wallahs to excited, then the subsequent speculation of Subotai Bahadur stands.

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