Monday, March 15, 2010

Judea Unus


(fm the BC thread "This Land is Mined")

For heuristic purposes let us consider whiskey's scenario of a US military confrontation with Israel. First his argument that Netanyahu has achieved the groundwork for an alliance of Israel India and Russia to contain Islam, and also presumably China is belied by both the continued functioning of the Shanghai Cooperation Council, which is the Anti-American Axis, and more importantly the fact of the Russian naval base in Syria. If the Israelis actually pulled off a diplomatic coup that gives them security despite a hostile America I would be impressed. The reality seems far grimmer.

If the US was to use military force against Israel the conventional, leaving nuclear out for now, forces available are in three locations.
1. US based Strategic assets including the 82nd Airborne and long range
    bombers.
2. CENTCOM assets, which since they are already in combat cover the full
    range of air, land and naval units and support.
3. The 6th Fleet and Air Force TacAir in Europe.

The US based assets are superb but the logistical thread is already stretched by inadequate refueling assets. Israel though has no way of intercepting any hostile movement while it is still out of area.

The US could order Air Force units in Turkey, which are Nato assigned, Iraq, which are slated for withdrawal, and Kuwait and the Gulf to engage the Israelis. Iran may take advantage of such an opportunity to move into a vacuum. It would add to the poignancy of the imagery if American military forces hosted in Islamic countries attacked the Jewish State. The diversion of any CENTCOM forces and the disruption of the supply chain could place our forces in Afghanistan under greater pressure. In the worst case air or even land forces approaching Israel would be approaching in a manner and over ground the Israelis are familiar with. While the Americans would ultimately have an overwhelming advantage the Israelis would be able to respond most effectively to an attack from the East.

The most obvious forces available for pressuring Israel would be the Air Force units in Italy and the Naval units in the Mediterranean. To counter the later Israel has an inadequate number of very effective submarines. Some American officers have been hostile to Israel since the USS Liberty incident in 1967 and the Jonathon Pollard espionage case. The question becomes that if ordered to move against Israel what will CINCUSNAVEUR do? What will COMSIXFLT do, and so on?

My expectation is that orders will be obeyed, a few Jewish officers may be sent for special training in the week before any confrontation and word might be passed to keep an eye on some enlisted members. The Israelis would lose their submarines in the first two to six hours of any conflict. It is possible that in that time they could sink or cripple some US ships and kill from several hundred to several thousand Americans. The next day there will be riots and pogroms in Brooklyn. Then we will have to decide what kind of country we live in.

History is not a collection of random events that get thrown through our window like a dead cat tossed by some insane deity. We get the world we create. The rules, possibilities and limitations were in place when we arrived with the capacity to comprehend them. We can only blame the results on ourselves.

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(the thread closed before this could be posted)

Josh,
(who thinks Israel should go nuclear)

If I was the Israelis I would try for a US Carrier first thing and also destroy any Russian ships in port in Syria. The Israelis' biggest problem is they just have to few submarines.

Kinuachdrach,
(who noted British MoD claims that they could use their 50 troops on Diego Garcia to veto US actions against Iran)

Given how the British MoD treats their troops a year on what is effectively an American base should be good duty. Those 50 should be very happy with their US allies. My assumption is that the Americans give the hosts full Exchange and Commissary privileges. If they get US medical care that keeps them out of the clutches of the NHS then that should seal the deal. I'd think the biggest problem if Whitehall orders a suicide charge will be how to stop them from defecting?

Is there a contest between the Obama Democrats, the British Labour Party, and the EU/UN Grand Council of Special Rapporateurs to see who can come up with the most creative ways to abuse and humiliate the military?

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