Thursday, May 20, 2010

Comment on the Belmont Club:
"Flower in a Crannied Wall"

Secret hidden knowledge? Sounds like more Gnosticism. The Law of Large numbers means that over a long enough period of time even unlikely events come to pass. The flaw in the human psyche is that we extrapolate that data into an expectation that the unlikely even could be repeated, despite the logic to the contrary. That is why I am going to buy a lottery ticket today. Any given utopian conspiracy is sure to fail for several reasons;
1. it attracts dysfunctional losers who repel sane people,
2. its adherents prefer convoluted theories to Occam's Razor,
3. at almost any time society has the tools to destroy the conspiracy.

However over a long enough time period some conspiracies will succeed in taking power and then destroying their host society. It is an error of logic to believe that just because a course of action will be suboptimal it will not happen. Failure happens, it only reduces the ability of the one failing to repeat their error. Examples of utopian conspiracies based on secret hidden knowledge that succeeded in taking power include the Muhammadans in Yathrib in 624, Bolsheviks in Russia in 1917, the Khomeinists in Iran in 1979, and the Obamists in America in 2008.

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