Libya without Gaddafi: What to Expect, What to Watch For - By Victor Davis Hanson - The Corner - National Review Online
Fine post Professor. You could consider working with PJ O'Rourke on an update to "Holidays In Hell." I have three, OK 4 or 5, questions, at least in the Monty Python "What have the Romans done for us?" sense.
1. Do we want to see Libya as another nasty spot where we just extract energy until technology advances and improved policy free us from the imported yoke? If so would we even want Wheelus back?
2. Is there a natural reversion of post-colonial artificial polities back into their tribal components? Is this a necessary if violent phase on the path to modernity?
3. Is Ghaddifi's ideology a colonial intrusion imposed by the Tripolitanian elites on the native Sanussi and Berber population? Are their links to Fascist and Futurist influences from the Italian occupation?
4. Will Ghaddafi devise an ingenious plot to survive by hiding among innumerable transliterations Khaddafy Qaddafi etc., as he vows "They'll never spot me." More seriously if millions flee, what will Europe do?
5. What will happen to the poor girls of the Praetorian Guard? Will Berlusconi offer them refuge to continue the Bunga-bunga parties they inspired?
Seriously, the people of the Maghreb have a Christian and Jewish heritage, after all Augustine of Hippo was a Berber, and enormous potential productivity. The agriculture has deteriorated both due to changing climate patterns over the last 2,000 years and infrastructure neglect under Muslim stewardship.
Are the recent intrusions of Salafism and Marxism and Anti-semitism (possibly more long standing) beyond our power to combat? If so we must default to my first position, extract at arms length. That may not work, Iran proves how hard it is to keep a viper caged.