Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Comment on The Belmont Club
"Armageddon revisited"

It is not necessary to drop a nuclear bomb on Cairo. Nasser built one, it is called the Aswan High Dam. My guess is that one day some Islamic group will blow it up to kill Copts or Mubarak or just to kill.

The primary target in Israel is the reactor facility at Dimona. Israelis call it the "Banana Factory."

Regarding the fraudulent 2007 NIE report that was used to cripple efforts to control Iran and which also boosted the Democrats in the run up to the 2008 election, actions must have consequences. The production and use of the false report to aid hostile foreign powers was a clear case of treason and sedition. Remember that Iran was and is engaged in active combat killing American soldiers in Iraq. If those who engaged in this fraud faced consequences, if their sense of overwhelming immunity was torn asunder, then we would be restored to a world in which reasonable people can disagree over policy.

The failure to permanently disbar Clinton for his admitted perjury started the devaluation of any sense that would be any consequences for assaults on the foundations of constitutional government. In addition the laughably soft response to Sandy Berger's "Docs in his socks" destruction of the historical record in the National Archive was a body blow to any sense that those committing an outrage may be held accountable.

(who praised my analysis)
Thank you for the kind words. I claim no special knowledge of intelligence value. Now if only someone would offer me a job.

The Israelis have put much effort into their "Iron Dome" missile defense system. That should give some point defense capability but would not defend against a nuclear airburst. How many of Israel's warheads are kept in storage at Dimona and how may are launch ready? The problem they face in needing to prevent a decapitating first strike is similar to that faced by Pakistan, only in Israel's case it is even worse because the country is so incredibly small. What Israel needs IMHO are more submarines. Fuel cell powered subs with long deployment times armed with either nuke cruise missiles or ballistics would be their best option to guarantee survivability.

A few more hunter killer submarines would give the Israelis the option to blockade Iran. That would be a Samson option move in the face of an existential threat, unless prior support was forthcoming from other interested parties. If Iran is blockaded they will of course move to stop all traffic going into the Gulf. Any unsupported Israeli threat to close the Straits of Hormuz will produce panic and a confrontation with Japan, Nato, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Saudis, the Russians who the KSA have now concluded a defense deal with, and the US 5th Fleet.

The Dimona location does minimize collateral damage if targeted. The greatest risk would be to the town itself (pop. ~36,000 according to wiki) and to archeological sites around the Dead Sea 22 some miles away and then the Jordanian desert. Beer'sheva, a sizable small city, is to the North-west.

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