Thursday, December 02, 2010

Comments on Lee Kwan Yew -
China's Rise: A Shift in Global Influence

China's Rise: A Shift in Global Influence -

A "Countervailing Force" is needed to balance China. The self imposed withdrawal of the US under Obama, dictated not by necessity but engineered by subversion, creates a dangerous vacuum. The threat of a Chinese advance through the South China Sea rests on four capabilities. These are her surface navy, her submarine force, her ability to control the airspace and the threat of nuclear intimidation. To meet these threats it is in the interests of India, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the ASEAN states to forge an alliance with Australia.

My proposal is that the United States transfer to Australia 25 B-52 bombers reequipped with long range Anti-Ship Missiles and that all cooperate on building a serious anti-submarine warfare capability, including at least 12 air independent propulsion based shallow water submarines based on the German or Swedish models to be divided among the more industrialized of the nations concerned. This may prevent the PLAN from pushing South in a reprise of the IJN's advance 70 years ago. That will cover the surface and subsurface threats. The need to prevent the PLAAF from establishing air superiority if the USN CVBGs are excluded, possibly by the emerging anti-ship ballistic missile, or withdrawn due to budget and political weakness may prove more difficult. Ideally 200 F-22's would be stationed in theater to carry out that mission but that is a forlorn hope and even the F-35 program is threatened. Emerging technologies may permit a network of distributed surface to air systems to assist in denying an enemy dominance. The only way to forestall nuclear blackmail unfortunately is through controlled proliferation. Australia, Korea, and Japan should announce the establishment of a joint authority to oversee the establishment of a retaliatory capability. Taiwan could be given observer status.

The deep rooted antagonism and suspicion that many hold towards Japan is understandable but it creates the space into which China advances. Perhaps China miscalculated in permitting its attack dog North Korea to create the latest crisis. So far Japan has played this right, voicing support for South Korea without giving her enemies an assertive presence to play off of. It is possible that out of necessity a new system will arise for the countries that ring the South China Sea and the larger democracies on the periphery. The deepening of trade and social links that Lee Kwan Yew calls for is an essential part of building a safer and freer future for the billion who live in the region.

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