Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Dead Cat Goes Thud

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20.
From Rasmussen Reports.
Only 48% of his own party strongly approve of his performance. The polls over the next few days will confirm the reaction to his big push after the oil leak. The pattern has been for Obama to sink in the polls and then stage an event, such as the Health Care Address to Congress or the State of The Union to rally support. Some of these, such as the two trips to Denmark, have turned out to be complete failures and others provided him a temporary boost. The returns on each of his recent efforts to substitute oratory for performance has been of a shorter duration and generally less effective than his earlier performances.

The first thing he did on entering the White House was send the bust of Winston Churchill back to Britain. Obama is no Churchill for three reasons;
1. Churchill was deeply aware of and respectful to the nature of his people,
2. Churchill was right in his precepts and perceptions,
3. Churchill was effective in his governance.

My prediction is that by late July his Strong Approval percentage will touch 22% and his Strong Disapproval percentage will touch 47%. That will give him an overall rating of minus 25% and an overall approval rating below 40%, within 100 days of the Congressional midterm elections. At that point there will be every reason to expect a crisis to occur. Obama will have both the incentive and the track record to attempt to salvage his position by rallying support during both a domestic and an international emergency. He may also be expected to push to rally his base with divisive efforts on immigration amnesty, even though doing so will impede efforts to respond to emergent threats. At the same time foreign rivals, not of Obama but of America, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Shia Iranians, and the Sunni Salafists, and their allies, will have their best chance to push at America's moment of weakness. We will be divided domestically, paralyzed politically, large numbers of those who we depend on to protect us from enemies will be deeply suspicious of their chain of command and the threats will at the same time be very real.

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