Sunday, March 22, 2009

Comment on Belmont Club
"The crucial year"

The fuel either comes from the South-west on Iranian sufferance or from the North on Russian sufferance. Everything else we can do by air but not the fuel. The Taliban have very little support on the ground, certainly less than 10%. What they have is a presence and the ability to intimidate. They are in a similar position to the darling of the Left from 40 years ago, the Vietcong. If the US could provide physical seurity and train and pay an Afghan police force we could hold the villages and win. The chinese want stability so they can exploit the minerals and have a supply route to Iran. To me the best strategy would be (would have been for 7 years) a sharp shock to Iran to induce regime change. The problem is Pakistan. How can we stabilize Afghanistan while the big neighbor, over 170 million with over 27 million Pushtuns, is dissolving?

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