Saturday, August 22, 2009
Posted on the last BC thread.
Take a look at today's Rasmussen Daily Presidential tracking poll, http://tinyurl.com/5tnd2b. He is now at -10 in the Approval Index. If my prior analysis holds up then the strong negatives will probably level off in the 40% range until the end of September. After that they will probably go up to at least 50% strongly negative. His strong positives are due in the next couple of weeks for another precipitous drop from the 30% range down to 22-25%. He will probably recover about half of that by November. Of the third of the likely voters who are in the middle the pattern now is that about twice as many are likely to break against Obama to the right as move left and support him.
This puts the Democrats in an almost existential position before the off year elections. While it is true that no congressional seats are at risk this year there are local contests.
The patronage jobs and union contracts riding on these elections are the life blood of the Democratic Party. The unhappiness this situation creates will be shared with Congress members. Given these facts it seems that the only way that Obama can push through any more power and money grabs is by using tactics that approach a Coup d’état. My prediction is that marginal or Blue Dog Democrats are going to be blackmailed and their families threatened. Some will break and go public about it.