Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Comment on The Belmont Club,
"Heat beneath the dome"

It is possible for an aristocratic state actor to enter a war with the expectation that it will lose. That is possibly how Spain behaved in the run up to the Spanish American War. It is even easier for a non-state actor to provoke a war without the expectation of a conventional victory. Think of the small dog in the run who causes trouble and then runs behind its owner or the rest of the pack. You can just hear them say, "OK Dad now it is your turn." Hezbollah is writing checks for others to cash.

My view since 2001 has been that the boil should have been lanced first in Damascus. The Sunnis everywhere will be delighted if the Syrian Alawite regime is destroyed. The Iraqis, including most Shia should feel relieved if the Iranian proxy to their rear is dispatched. The Turks would benefit by no longer facing Russian encirclement. Israel should avoid the planned trap and strike at the strings (Syria) between the puppet (Hezbollah) and the puppet masters (Iran/Russia).

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