Friday, September 24, 2010

Four Japanese citizens detained in China as dispute escalates - Telegraph

Four Japanese citizens detained in China as dispute escalates - Telegraph

China kidnapping Japanese is very dangerous. Japan is a consensus culture and may turn on a dime and remilitarize. It is commonly accepted that Japan could have functioning nuclear weapons within weeks or maybe even hours. They already have the delivery systems.

A strong US has been liked in Australasia for 65 years. This is because of memories of Japan's military. China hoped for a weak US and a weak Japan, leading to a strong China. Do they think that they are now in the same strategic position as as Japan was in 1940? It is unlikely that this conduct will facilitate "bandwaggoning" by smaller powers who will be encouraged to join China. It is more likely that Japan, Australia and India will consult and then work with smaller threatened regional players who will seek to balance China. Within the past few months China has needlessly threatened South Korea (who must assume that North Korea had permission to sink a warship), Taiwan (who face existential threats from thousands of missiles and the threat to the US protector), Vietnam and the Philippines (who have seen the PLAN claim sovereignty for China over the South China Sea and valuable resources, India (who are now surrounded by Chinese naval bases and incensed by PLA soldiers building a road across disputed territory in Kashmir) and finally Japan. If the US had remained a strong presence then these nations would would not naturally divert resources to their defenses or cooperate easily. Most would be very reluctant to cooperate with Japan if they had confidence in the US. By weakening the Americans through commercial diplomatic and military pressures the Chinese have created their own worst case outcome. The Chinese are fools for antagonizing Japan and this may indicate instability in China.

No comments: