Sunday, September 28, 2008

Comment on Belmont Club "Both Ends and the Middle"

The US needs to ensure the survival of our army in Afghanistan. We would benefit from the Indians placing an army to the West of Pakistan but that just duplicates the problem. How is the Indian army expected to get to Afghanistan or get supplied once it is there? Now if the Pakistanis cannot provide America with a secure route from the sea to the Khyber Pass then we may have to consider writing down our investments in Pakistan and supporting an Indian move through Lahore to the Khyber. If the Pakistanis see this as an existential problem than they might secure transit rights for the Indians and Americans but frankly I doubt it. In all probability Pakistan dissolves and hundreds of thousands or more will die until some new structure is established. We need to be working now on how to keep our army alive during the coming implosion. We may have to march to the sea. What route should it be, East through the Khyber or South to Karachi? While many would hope for a coordinated move on Iran that option is clearly no longer on the table.

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